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Uh, oh...



See what just six pounds can do?
Speaking of weight and rain, here's something from CN on the Le Mans race:

Obviously, given the conditions, tire choice made all the difference -
especially if the choice was Bridgestone over Michelin. The latter
hadn't anticipated the rain would be so heavy, and recommended all teams
to use a medium-to-hard wet tire. Only Pedrosa had his usual softer
choice. "I'm really happy with the result, because this was a hard race,
and we came through strongly," he said. Rossi described his last five
laps as "the most difficult of my career".

And of course Hayden crashed out two laps from the end on his harder
tires. So it seems tire selection was the deciding factor at the end,
and Pedrosa'a choice wasn't based on a weather guess, rather was his
usual softer selection based on reduced wear due to his much lighter weight.

It's good to be a dwarf in GP...